01
+34%
Novices gain most from AI inside a task, about +34% vs. little for experts.
Brynjolfsson, Li & Raymond, QJE 2025 · Peer-reviewed
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Research · AI and design careers
How AI is changing design work
What the research says so far about AI and design jobs. The short version: AI does more of the making, so the judgment around it is worth more. Each finding links to its source, with what kind of evidence it is.
By Sarit Elisha, founder of Irreplaceable · Updated October 10, 2026
See where your judgment stands
Twelve design decisions, about 12 minutes. Free.
The findings
Peer-reviewed studies, working papers and industry data. Read the evidence level before you quote one.
02
−16%
Employment of 22–25 year olds in AI-exposed jobs fell 16% relative to others; experienced workers held steady.
Brynjolfsson, Chandar & Chen, Stanford 2025 · Working paper
03
−17%
Freelance image-creation postings fell 17% after image generators launched.
Demirci, Hannane & Zhu, Management Science 2025 · Peer-reviewed
04
n=319
Higher confidence in AI goes with less critical thinking (n=319 knowledge workers).
Lee et al., CHI 2025 · Peer-reviewed
05
1 = team
An individual with AI matched a team without it, and AI blurred functional silos.
Dell'Acqua et al., NBER 2025 · Working paper
06
↓ accuracy
On tasks outside AI's frontier, people using AI were less accurate than those without it.
Dell'Acqua et al., HBS/BCG “jagged frontier” · Working paper
07
NN/g
AI prototyping tools follow instructions but can't weigh design trade-offs on their own.
Nielsen Norman Group · Research firm
08
27→39%
Directive (automation-style) use of Claude rose from 27% to 39% in under a year.
Anthropic Economic Index, Sept 2025 · Primary data
09
UI/UX ↑
Graphic designers rank among the fastest-declining jobs, while UI/UX roles grow.
WEF Future of Jobs 2025 · Survey
10
+56%
Job ads requiring AI skills carry a 56% wage premium within the same occupation.
PwC AI Jobs Barometer 2025 · Job-ad analysis
11
1 in 3
About a third of designers already ship AI products, and agent builders doubled in a year.
Figma AI Report 2025 · Vendor survey
12
+6–11%
Under an hour of calibration training improves forecasting accuracy by 6–11%.
Good Judgment Project, JDM · Peer-reviewed
Measure it
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